Col. Macgregor is wrong about China stealing U.S. tech.

Colonel Douglas Macgregor claims that China's primary, and seemingly only, access to U.S. technology is to steal it. This claim is not consistent with the facts.

1. According to a May 6, 2019, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Staff Research Report, "How Chinese Companies Facilitate Technology Transfer from the United States":

To support its technological development, the Chinese government relies on several different means by which to acquire U.S. technology, including (1) pursuing FDI in foreign technology firms, (2) making VC investments in foreign technology firms and startups, (3) establishing JVs between foreign and Chinese companies, (4) requiring licensing agreements for foreign firms to operate in China, (5) conducting cyber espionage to steal IP, and (6) attracting U.S. experts and researchers to work for or partner with Chinese companies.

2. According to a brief published by Stanford University's Center on China's Economy and Institutions on July 1, 2023, "Assessing the Strengths and Limitations of China's Technology Transfer Policies":

China's imposition of policies that condition foreign access to China's market on technology transfer to domestic firms rose six-fold between 2002 and 2012, with 85% of the increase occurring in strategic industries.

Tech transfer policies were far more likely to be imposed in industries heavily reliant on China's market to sell finished goods (like automobiles) versus industries reliant on processing foreign inputs for re-export abroad (like semiconductors).

Tech transfer policies result from the bargaining power dynamics between China's government and multinational enterprises (MNEs). Strong enforcement capacity and market access control in China increase the government's bargaining power, while employing a large workforce in China and controlling access to overseas markets strengthen MNEs bargaining power.

3. According to a Princeton University publication, "Technology Transfer and U.S.-China Relations":

The normalization of diplomatic relations between the United States and China that occurred in 1979 set the stage for rapidly expanding technology transfer and trade. The two countries have signed 25 protocols for cooperation in science and technology.

4. According to "China's Engineering Capabilities and Workforce 2024," by Kjeld Friis Munkholm, Owner/CEO at Munkholm & Zhang Consulting, Accredited Member EUCPTID China, Advisor to the Board at Goevolve:

Over the past decade, China has consistently produced around 1.4 to 1.5 million engineering graduates annually, representing nearly one-third of the world's total engineering graduates. This reflects China's strategic emphasis on STEM education to ensure a constant supply of talent.

5. According to a July 2, 2022, Asia Times article, "US-China AI rivalry a tale of two talents":

The comparable American number is 197,000 (144,000 in engineering and 54,000 in computer science), or just one-seventh of China's total.